The overall
level of prices in an economy adjusts to bring money supply
and money demand into balance. When the central bank increases the supply of money, it
causes the price level to rise. Persistent growth in the quantity of money
supplied leads to continuing inflation.
A government can pay for some of its spending simply by printing
money. When countries rely heavily on this ‘inflation tax’, the
result is hyperinflation.
Many people think that inflation makes them poorer because it raises
the cost of what they buy. This view is a fallacy, however,
because inflation also raises nominal incomes.
Economists have identified six costs of inflation: shoe leather costs associated
with reduced money holdings; menu costs associated with more frequent adjustment of
prices; increased variability of relative prices; unintended changes in tax
liabilities due to non-indexation of the tax system; confusion and inconvenience
resulting from a changing unit of account; and arbitrary
redistributions of wealth between debtors and creditors. Many of these costs
are large during hyperinflation, but the size of
these costs for moderate inflation is less clear.
The Phillips curve describes a negative relationship between inflation
and unemployment. By expanding aggregate demand, policy makers can choose a point on the
Phillips curve with higher inflation and lower unemployment. By
contracting aggregate demand, policy makers can choose a point on the
Phillips curve with lower inflation and higher unemployment.
The trade-off between inflation and unemployment described by the
Phillips curve holds only in the short run. In the long run,
expected inflation adjusts to changes in actual inflation, and the
short-run Phillips curve shifts. As a result, the longrun Phillips curve is
vertical at the natural rate of unemployment.
The short-run Phillips curve also shifts because of shocks to aggregate
supply. An adverse supply shock, such as the increase in world oil prices during the 1970s,
gives policy makers a less favourable trade-off between inflation and unemployment.
That is, after an adverse supply shock, policy makers have
to accept a higher rate of inflation for any given rate of
unemployment, or a higher rate of unemployment for any given
rate of inflation.
When the central bank contracts growth in the money supply to reduce
inflation, it moves the economy along the short-run Phillips
curve, which results in temporarily high unemployment. The cost of disinflation depends
on how quickly expectations of inflation fall. Some economists argue that a credible
commitment to low inflation can reduce the cost of disinflation
by inducing a quick adjustment of expectations.
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