All
societies experience short-run economic fluctuations around
long-run trends. These fluctuations are irregular and largely
unpredictable. When recessions do occur, real GDP and other
measures of income, spending and production fall, and
unemployment rises.
Economists analyze short-run economic fluctuations using the model of
aggregate demand and aggregate supply. According to this model, the output of goods and
services and the overall level of prices adjust to balance aggregate demand and
aggregate supply.
The aggregate demand curve slopes downward for three reasons.
First, a lower price level raises the real value of households’ money
holdings, which stimulates consumer spending. Secondly, a lower price level reduces the
quantity of money households’ demand; as households
try to convert money into interest-bearing assets, interest rates fall, which stimulates
investment spending. Thirdly, as a lower price level
reduces interest rates, the local currency depreciates in the
market for foreign currency exchange, which stimulates net exports.
Any event or policy that raises consumption, investment, government
purchases or net exports at a given price level increases
aggregate demand. Any event or policy that reduces consumption,
investment, government purchases or net exports at a given price level decreases
aggregate demand.
The long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical. In the long run, the
quantity of goods and services supplied depends on the economy’s
labour, capital, natural resources and technology, but not on the overall level of
prices.
Three theories have been proposed to explain the upward slope of the
short-run aggregate supply curve. According to the sticky wage theory, an unexpected fall in
the price level temporarily raises real wages, which induces firms to reduce employment
and production. According to the sticky price theory, an
unexpected fall in the price level leaves some firms with prices
that are temporarily too high, which reduces their sales and causes them to cut back
production. According to the misperceptions theory, an unexpected fall in the price level leads
suppliers to mistakenly believe that their relative prices have fallen, which induces them to reduce
production. All three theories imply that output deviates from its natural rate when
the price level deviates from the price level that people expected.
Events that alter the economy’s ability to produce output, such as
changes in labour, capital, natural resources or technology,
shift the short-run aggregate supply curve (and may shift
the long-run aggregate supply curve as well). In addition,
the position of the short-run aggregate supply curve
depends on the expected price level.
One possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate
demand. When the aggregate demand curve shifts to the left, for instance, output and
prices fall in the short run. Over time, as a change in the expected price level
causes wages, prices and perceptions to adjust, the short-run aggregate supply curve
shifts to the right, and the economy returns to its
natural rate of output at a new, lower price level.
A second possible cause of economic fluctuations is a shift in aggregate
supply. When the aggregate supply curve shifts to the left,
the short-run effect is falling output and rising prices – a
combination called stagflation. Over time, as wages,
prices and perceptions adjust, the price level falls back to its
original level, and output recovers.
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